- Dallas Goedert takes over Eagles TE1 from Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz has been a staple of the elite fantasy tight ends since 2014, but last year he was a bit of a risk to consistently start. Although Ertz racked up 900 yards, he only scored touchdowns in 5 different outings and subsequently only had 5 double digit fantasy performances throughout the season. While Ertz was capable of putting up a few high teen and low twenty point performances he had more than a few duds, like his three week mid-season stretch where he failed to score more than 4 points in a game (standard, non ppr). As touchdown dependent as tight ends are in Non PPR leagues, draft either of these two with high caution. As Ertz continues to age, look for the younger Goedert to start stealing more and more targets as he has clearly been the healthier option for the Eagles. Don’t forget, the best ability in fantasy football is AVAILablity.
As both are still top 10 options in PPR leagues, look for Goedert to have a breakout season. In 2019, Goedert had 87 targets, while Ertz had 135…look for those numbers to meet in the middle in 2020. Steer clear from drafting either too high in a non PPR league.
2. Cam Newton finishes as a top 5 quarterback
This one isn’t as bold as it sounds, but an absence of Cam Newton for the majority of the last two seasons has led us to forget how much of a fantasy lock he always has been. Due to being, historically speaking, the best mobile quarterback in NFL history, his ability for finding the end zone with his feet really cements his status of being a top fantasy sleeper. A healthy Newton, which he certainly must be to have passed the Patriots front office, is a serious fantasy threat.
Even with only 21 passing touchdowns and 3500 yards, Cam still calculates to be a top fantasy quarterback thanks to his rushing ability. Cam averages over 7 rushing touchdowns a season throughout his career.
3. Derrick Henry’s production falls in PPR Leagues
It is hard to pick at Henry’s unbelievable 2019 campaign, but the one glaring weakness the young RB has is a lack of receptions. Although he is the best downhill runner (maybe ever?), he has only had 57 receptions in his 4-year career. It is unreasonable to expect Henry to amass over 1500 yards and 16 touchdowns again, and because of that he has fallen significantly in our rankings. 2020 will be a year that heavily relies on the passing game, and with Henry’s lack of experience through the air we can rely on his numbers taking a hit. Don’t reach on Derrick Henry.
Although the sample size was quite small in 2019, Henry made the most of it by taking 2 of his 18 receptions to the end zone. Henry scored touchdowns in all but 4 games in the season. With the departure of Dion Lewis, look for rookie Darrynton Evans to take the bulk of the passing game.
4. Edwards-Helaire doesn’t meet his unrealistic expectations
I’ve never been a big fan of overrating rookie running backs, but the consensus is that the Chiefs rookie is a tier one fantasy player. I am not buying it…yet. Edwards-Helaire had a phenomenal season at LSU with a historically great offense, but it is easy to fall in the trap to think he can easily transfer to the next level without any slip ups. Kareem Hunt was great with the Chiefs and had one of the best rookie campaigns we have seen to date, but Hunt was also a prototypical bell cow that had 4 years of college production and starting on a very up and coming Chiefs offense led by Alex Smith. I think Edwards-Helaire will be awesome, but I also think that it is a very high risk move to take him inside the top 2 rounds.
It is easy to compare him to the likes of Saquon, Elliott and Peterson, but keep in mind those three backs all rank inside the top 5 rookie seasons ever. We predict his numbers totaling 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns, primarily through the ground attack.
5. Neither Godwin nor Evans finish as top 5 WRs
Both receiver’s 2019 campaigns were boosted by a gunslinger quarterback on a team who often trailed most games. Insert a precise, but aging (GOAT) quarterback into the picture and you can expect the teams total passing to disperse a bit. Both receivers will get their own, but don’t be looking for 3,000 combined receiving yards this year. Look for both to be inside the top 15 but lower your expectations if you think that magically swapping Winston for Brady is going to ensure even bigger numbers for the duo.
Believe it or not, Brady has not had a duo of wide receivers to each have over 1,000 receiving yards since 2009. With the new additions of Fournette and Gronkowski, there will be a much more balanced offense in Tampa.